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Treasury Wines (TWE) - China tariffs gone

An incremental market opportunity

03 April 2024

The removal of Chinese tariffs on Australian wine exports is positive for Treasury Wines. However, the company’s emphasis of a “modest” impact initially reinforces to us that the tariffs were a catalyst to diversify Treasury’s market exposure. As a result, China will be an incremental market, which means incremental costs (we estimate $30 million in next 12 months) as well as a three-year wait for meaningful incremental China earnings. Sales into China will be smaller in quantity, but higher priced than historically.

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