Woolworths reported a strong improvement in profit margins in 1H23 driven by its Australian Food segment. COVID-19 costs have unwound and cost efficiency programs are delivering results. We expect further margin gains in 2H23e, albeit at a smaller rate. The challenge for Woolworths is its profit margins will be close to long-term averages by the end of FY23e and EPS growth may step down to single-digits in FY24e and beyond.

Wesfarmers reported FY22 EBIT down 4%. However, as COVID-19 impacts eased, 2H22 EBIT rose by 10%. The strongest growth came from WesCEF and Kmart. Bunnings had a much stronger top line result in 2H, but its margins fell at an accelerating rate. We expect Bunnings margin pressure to persist over the next two years. Kmart’s margins should rebound in FY23e and WesCEF should have another strong year given higher prices. We expect the share price to come under pressure as Bunnings sales slow in calendar 2023.

Wesfarmers reported FY21 EBIT up 18%. However, Bunnings and Kmart earnings are likely to fall in FY22e given lockdowns and a normalisation in demand. These two businesses account for over 80% of group earnings. The company also flagged investment in its “digital ecosystem”. We expect elevated capex to persist as Wesfarmers catches up in online. There is upside risk to capex projects as IT and supply chains may need to change if online penetration becomes meaningful.