We expect Christmas retail sales to surprise on the upside with a partial offset in lower profit margins. The strongest feedback comes from department stores, electronics and supermarkets. However, not all have done well. Off-premise liquor looks to be in decline and womenswear feedback is weak.

Premier Investments provided a trading update to say that its first 12 weeks of FY23e has seen sales up 43%. These growth rates lap lockdowns from last year and are distorted. Nevertheless, underlying demand is strong as consumers have ramped up fashion spending. We expect sales growth to slow to very low single-digit from November onwards and sales are likely to decline in 2023.