Despite the range of risks facing the retail sales outlook, there has been a level of consumer resilience that persists. We refresh our retail forecasts in this report, with a shift in the shape pushing more of the downturn into 2027. We forecast FY27e retail sales growth of 4.3% (prev 3.7%) and FY28e growth of 3.9% (prev 4.0%). The recent resilience in sales comes from the strength in income, not irrational factors like more credit. Retail cycles take longer to unfold than many expect. We have explored past cycles to help inform this pending downturn. A trough in retail usually occurs 18 months from the peak, which would date this cycle’s trough around May-June 2027. The outlook does have risk with a sharper drop in wealth our primary concern. The potential for higher retail price inflation is an upside risk to nominal sales growth.