The shape of the recovery in Australian tourism remains a tailwind, not a headwind for retail. As at December 2022, Australians are still over-indexing on local stays. This tends to boost sales in supermarkets, liquor, apparel, pubs, restaurants and cafes. In addition, recent data also shows net migration is recovering rapidly. If current trends hold, by June 2023, population growth could be 1.5%, compared with 1.0% for the year to June 2022. This step-up in population will partly cushion the impending downturn in retail spending. We expect any downturn in retail sales is more likely around June 2023, not earlier.