Quarterly Update: Australian retail forecasts for 2022

Stronger near-term, but weaker 2023

Published: 19 April 2022

We have refreshed our forecasts for the retail sales outlook. In short, sales growth has started 2022 stronger than we anticipated and good conditions should last another six months. We forecast 4.5% sales growth in calendar 2022 (prev 3.0%) and 2.3% in 2023 (prev 3.0%). The overall two-year growth is virtually unchanged. While higher interest rates will impact spending, wages growth will be higher and the savings rate will cushion the impact. Higher inflation should also help retail sales.

Not already a member?
Join now to get all the latest reports in full and stay informed.

Get started