On 2 June 2023, the Fair Work Commission is due to make its decision about minimum wages for fiscal 2024. April 2023 trimmed mean inflation was 6.7% and other measures of price rises are fairly similar. In past minimum wage decisions, the Fair Work panel has decided to raise wages by 0.5% to 1.0% above the prevailing trimmed mean inflation. The Fair Work Commission is likely to be “inflation-matching” in our view and therefore an outcome above 6.0% is most likely. For more on wage risks for retail, see this report What if retail wages rise 8%?