Australian households and companies have not dealt with an interest rate increase for more than 10 years. However, higher rates are imminent. In Issue 3 of The Retail Mosaic, we assess the impact that higher rates may have on spending, company earnings and share prices. It takes, on average, 18 months for a rate hike to impact spending, but for furniture it can be in as little as six months. We expect housing churn will slow as rates rise, placing further downside risk on household goods. Retailers have limited debt and some hedging that will moderate the earnings risk from higher rates. However, PE ratios could derate by 10-20%, particularly for high PE defensive stocks such as supermarkets and conglomerates.

Woolworths reported sales up 8% but EBIT down 11% in 1H22. Even though COVID-19 disruptions added costs, underlying cost growth was also elevated, which we attribute to higher online sales. The company noted that food inflation had accelerated 2%-3% in early 2022, which is a good sign for earnings. We expect Woolworths to proactively work on lowering costs over the next two years.

Amazon Australia recently released its financial accounts, providing an interesting perspective about the battle online. We calculate that Amazon grew gross transaction value by 48% to $2.6 billion in 2021. Catch Group and Kogan had broadly flat sales. Amazon’s EBITDA margin was 1.9%, which is better than Catch and Kogan. There is an increasing intensity of competition between Amazon, Wesfarmers and Woolworths to capture customers in their “digital ecosystem”. It is not clear who will be the winner. What is clear is that it will take time and money to be successful. The costs will likely outweigh the revenue gains over the next 1-3 years.

If you would like to continue receiving updates like this, please contact us.

Chart: Sales for online retailers for 12 months to December 2021

Sales for all only represent Australian online sales. We exclude Woolworths NZ as we focus on purchases by Australian residents. Source: Company reports, MST Marquee

The February 2022 reporting season for retail, food and beverages is likely to show a wide dispersion in performance amongst companies. While sales trends have been good across the board, some have converted that to earnings better than others. We expect good results from household goods retailers like Harvey Norman but are below consensus on earnings for Domino’s and Endeavour Group. We expect stocks to be influenced by trading updates for January 2022 sales and commentary about price inflation and cost pressures. The full report provides a preview of major ASX-listed retailers potential earnings results.

The prospect of higher price inflation could significantly impact a retailer’s sales, earnings and valuation over the next three years. In Issue 2 of Price Watch, we analyse the impact price inflation has on supermarkets and non-food retailers and assess the likely volume response to price rises. The good news is even in non-food retail, price inflation 2-3 percentage points higher than average will lead to better sales, earnings and a PE re-rate.

The outlook for Coles and Woolworths in 2022 is looking better. The risks around COVID-19 costs are now well managed. We expect upside from consumer stockpiling near-term will lift sales earnings and higher food inflation over the next 12 months will be positive for earnings. In this report we look at how the COVID-19 costs may unwind and the impact that higher food inflation will have on the supermarket sector.

Our feedback from a range of contacts is that Christmas 2021 trading was solid, particularly given the high base from 2020. The strongest feedback comes from the furniture sector. Whitegoods were strong and supermarkets had a late rush in sales. While a good festive season, the debate is going to shift quickly to the impact that COVID-19 has had on January 2022 trading. Sales could be down 10%-20% for the month leading to 3%-5% full year EPS risk in our view.

Australians like to holiday both locally and overseas. With locked borders over 2020 and 2021, reduced tourism spend has been a source of savings and some of the spare cash has also made its way into retail. As tourism recovers, will retail sales slow? In Issue 2 of The Retail Mosaic, we analyse the change in tourism spending over recent years and assess the possible recovery path and its impact on retail. The good news for retailers is that any recovery in tourist spending is likely to be gradual and centre on domestic trips. Given almost half of spending by tourists while on domestic holidays is in retail stores, then the recovery in holidays may prove to be a smaller drag on retail than some fear

Woolworths has provided a trading update to flag COVID-19 costs have had a bigger drag on earnings. Sales trends are solid, but even underlying cost growth looks elevated to us. We expect three-quarters of the one-off costs of $255 million to unwind, but we are concerned that online is creating a bigger drag on margins. Big W also has lower sales and margins.

Woolworths has made a bid for API, trumping Wesfarmers takeover offer. This battle has just begun. Both companies have the balance sheet. Both see improvements in Priceline’s sales and earnings. Wesfarmers is likely to place a greater value on both the Priceline loyalty members and the platform API may create for a Health division in our view.