Australian retailers have had a decent Christmas in 2023, particularly compared with low expectations amongst retailers and investors. Supermarkets traded solidly and electronics demand improved from very weak levels. Liquor and apparel are still trending at very low rates of growth. There is consensus upgrade risk to retailers, particularly Harvey Norman and Super Retail Group. While sales trends are slightly better, the strength of gross margin is the most significant driver of better earnings. The retailer where feedback has shifted most positively is Harvey Norman.

Woolworths 1Q24 sales revealed good growth in its Australian Food division but weak results in NZ and Big W. Woolworths Food division is the driver of group earnings and valuation and is likely to see a further moderation in sales trends over the next year. There is a risk that the positive mix effect on sales unwinds as consumers react to higher prices and income growth is squeezed.

We are approaching the most important time of year for retailers where a successful festive season can make or break the year. For 2023, retailers are planning bigger and earlier events in November. Black Friday sales are likely to pull forward spending yet again. We expect the most noticeable boost to sales in electronics and recreational goods where supply has improved. While there is upside risk to consensus sales for 1H24e, the challenge will be profit margins. We are more cautious on margins and see a downside skew to risks given earlier discounting by retailers.

This chart pack provides subscribers with insights about the retail operating environment and outlook for wages, floor space and profit margins. The chart pack has been compiled post the FY23 reporting season across the retail market providing fresh insights about the sector.

Retailers and investors perceive certain retail categories as defensive. Typically, the implied definition of defensiveness centres around the stability of demand, as measured by volumes. However, this perspective is far too narrow given the impact price and cost structures can have on a retailers’ profitability. In Issue 7 of The Retail Mosaic report, we analyse the volatility of volumes, price and dissect the cost structures of the retailers. We also analyse the share price volatility of retailers. Moving beyond just volume as the measure of defensiveness reveals a very different list of companies that are truly defensive. The most defensive retailers, taking into consideration, revenue, earnings and share price are Premier Retail, Wesfarmers, Woolworths and Bapcor.

Retail theft is reducing retail profits. Crime losses amount to 1.3%-1.4% of sales, or $4.5-$5.0 billion, across Australian retail. The issue has ramped up globally over the past year, with some of the increase year-on-year simply a return to normalisation post COVID-19. Reported Australian east-coast retail crime for FY23 is only up 2% on FY19 levels. The drive towards self-checkouts has exacerbated crime rates and retailers with challenges, like Coles, need to implement changes. As economic conditions tighten, crime rates may rise and prevent Coles from achieving any discernible margin recovery in FY24e in our view.

Woolworths reported FY23 sales up 6% and EBIT up 16% and the result  was characterised by a return to more normal trading patterns. EBIT was up 3% excluding the impact of an unwind of COVID-19 costs in the prior year. The Woolworths Food division had a strong improvement in margins, which bodes well for FY24e and its investments in adjacencies is supporting higher margins than major peer Coles. We expect elevated capex to continue over the next two years given supply chain investments, which should deliver a return.

Australian supermarket sales are at a record low as a share of total food spending. Dining out is winning share of spend and the same is true for the US and NZ. Our research shows that employment growth, inbound tourism and savings tend to be well correlated with dining out spending and all still point to solid growth. Supermarket prices have also risen faster impacting its relative affordability. Dining out is bound to slow, more so in 2024 than now and unfortunately for supermarkets any uptick in volume may be more than offset by a fade in inflation.

Woolworths hosted a tour of its Melbourne South Regional Distribution Centre (MSRDC). This highly automated DC opened 2019 but COVID-19 delayed any inspection of the site. Woolworths spent over $560 million, including capitalised lease costs, and we estimate the return on investment at 7%-9%. While Woolworths has a different partner to Coles, we expect a similar outcome in terms of cost per case in the automated DC and a similar return on investment. The shift to automation comes at an important time for the supermarkets given escalating wage cost growth. While these DCs are impressive, they are more likely to offset to wage pressures than lift profit margins.

Tobacco may be somewhat inconspicuous in supermarkets but it has a meaningful impact on sales and margin outcomes given demand has dropped significantly in the past year. Metcash faces the biggest headwind given tobacco could account for 15% of group sales. The drop in tobacco is partly driven by the rise of illicit tobacco and vaping.